Source: Wikipedia |

The maximum number of workers that can be allocated to any given resource acquisition project is seven, so a maximum of seven dice can be rolled. I found I did not have a strong intuitive feel for how the probability distribution of resources earned changed as price and number of workers were varied. Obviously, using more workers or trying to acquire cheaper resources both will increase the amount of resources obtained, but by how much? Workers are scarce, so is it worth it to commit a seventh worker to the project or will six (probably) do just fine? How many workers do I need to commit to my wood acquisition to be at least 70% confident that I will obtain at least four wood?Example: If a player decided to acquire wood with four workers, four dice would be rolled. If the dice display 6, 5, 5, and 3 then the sum is 19. Dividing by the cost (3) and rounding down yields 6. Therefore, the player would acquire six wood.

As it turns out, these questions are easily resolved by performing some basic probability calculations. Since humans are not good at rapidly estimating those parameters, I decided to generate some probability tables. The first table shows several things for each type of resource given that 1 - 7 dice are being rolled:

- Expected values - the number of resources you would expect to gain on average if you rolled the dice many times
- The typical minimum and maximum number of resources you should expect to obtain (90% of the time)
- Efficiency - The number of resources expected per worker
- Synergy - The gain in efficiency obtained by using more workers (two workers generate more resources than either would working alone)

Assigning more workers to a given acquisition increases not only the expected number of resources obtained, but also the efficiency (expected resources per worker).**Every resource exhibits synergy.**The synergy score for seven workers obtaining gold is 3.143 which means that those workers are 214.3% more efficient at obtaining gold than a single worker working alone. By contrast the maximal synergy score for food ("the hunt") is only 1.143 which means that seven workers working together are only 14.3% more efficient than a single worker alone.**Higher priced resources (e.g. gold) exhibit much more synergy than lower-priced resources (e.g. food).****90% of the maximum synergy is always obtained by using at least four workers.**Wood is the lowest priced-resource that can be used to buy civilization cards (which provide points towards victory, among other things), making wood an extremely useful resource. An intuitive understanding how much wood can be expected as a function of workers assigned to the project is really useful.**The expected value of wood is approximately equal to the number of workers assigned to obtain it.**

This table provides some insights of strategic importance and it is practically useful during gameplay.In this example, we look at the brick table in the row for "At least 4...". This reveals that rolling five dice yields at 69% probability of obtaining at least 4 bricks and rolling six dice yields a 90% probability. Thus, if we need to be more than 75% sure that we'll obtain 4 bricks, six workers will need to be committed to the acquisition.

For example, during the endgame, gold is a strategically important resource. However, the advantage of using seven workers instead of using six workers is not that significant. In both cases, obtaining at least 2 gold is virtually assured and obtaining the 3rd gold occurs at high probability (94% vs 79%). The primary tradeoff is the potential to obtain a fourth gold (59% vs 28%). Thus, the advantage of using the seventh worker is to increase the probability of obtaining a fourth gold from low-probability to moderate-probability.

The in-game resource acquisition mechanic is slightly more complicated than I have described here (the use of "tools" slightly alters the probability distributions), but I think the tables provided are enough to give players an intuitive feel for how the resource acquisition probability distributions behave.

If you have a willing opponent, I strongly encourage you to play a few rounds with the tables in front of you. I found that I used them a fair bit, but then started to get more intuition about how many resources I could expect to obtain with a given number of workers assigned. Otherwise, I hope that at least some of the insights I've pointed out will help improve your strategy. Obviously, there are many other strategic elements of the game, but having a more intuitive understanding of the value of your workers in their role as resource producers can help you make better tactical choices.

Please download the guide and let me know how it impacts your strategy!

Standard disclaimers and statements

I am not affiliated Rio Grande Games, Hans-im-Gluck Verlags-GmbH or any of the retailers mentioned above. I have not accepted compensation in any form from any organization in support of this project. Use this information at your own risk. I am not responsible for any adverse effects your use of this information causes.

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

ReplyDeleteGood one

ReplyDeleteMaking decisions is definitely the most important job of a manager and it is often a very tough one. E-learning offers a decision making technique for solving complex problems step by step. It presents the decision-analysis course for both public and private decision-making, using different decision principles, different types of information, and information of changing quality. Numerous people are not good in decision making but with the help of e-learning they can improve their skills. E-learning courses College Credit For Life Experience defines the elements in the study of decision alternatives and choices, as well as the objectives and goals that guide decision-making.

ReplyDeleteBy what method can AI make you a superior director? What openings does it make for your HR systems? machine learning certification

ReplyDeleteIt is really a great work and the way in which u r sharing the knowledge is excellent. Thanks for helping me to understand basic concepts.

ReplyDeleteAWS Training in Hyderabad

AWS Course in Hyderabad

I am happy to visit here. Thanks to my friend who told me about this webpage, this blog is really awesome

ReplyDeleteData Science Training in Hyderabad

Data Science Course in Hyderabad

This is a great inspiring article. I am pretty much pleased with your good work. You put really very helpful information.

ReplyDeletePython Training in Hyderabad

Python Course in Hyderabad

takipçi satın al

ReplyDeletetakipçi satın al

takipçi satın al

marsbahis

ReplyDeletebetboo

sultanbet

marsbahis

betboo

sultanbet

Helpful analysis, thank you.

ReplyDeleteI am really enjoying the design and layout of your blog.Tourist visa to turkey. Complete the online application form on the Turkish eVisa website and confirm your application. Within minutes, you should receive an email asking you to confirm that you have started an application for a eVisa.

ReplyDeleteThis is a wonderful inspiring article. I am practically satisfied with your great work. You have really put together extremely helpful data. Keep it up ..Continue this... kenya visa for US citizens, The process of e-Visa application is very simple and straightforward. Applicant can complete the process within 5-10 minutes from anywhere in the world.

ReplyDeleteThis post is very useful, thanks for this post. The India evisa cost depends on your nationality and your required visa.

ReplyDeleteThanks for your great article which is both informative and innovative: with the latest updates. It was highly invaluable. Travelers have question that can US citizen travel to India? The answer is yes. You can apply directly for e-visas online. Therefore, the Indian government has developed an easy-to-use online Indian visa application form that makes it easy to apply for a visa.

ReplyDeleteseo fiyatları

ReplyDeletesaç ekimi

dedektör

instagram takipçi satın al

ankara evden eve nakliyat

fantezi iç giyim

sosyal medya yönetimi

mobil ödeme bozdurma

kripto para nasıl alınır

It was a pleasure to read this post and I appreciate your efforts. I look forward to your continued excellent work in the future. Travelers who are planning to visit Turkey. It is important for them to be aware of the Turkish visa requirements to avoid an inconvenience during the visa application process.

ReplyDelete